Before we start let’s review our base strategy for the coming weeks.  There are anywhere from 13 to 16 games depending on the week.   The key is to pick 5 or 6 games you feel strongly about.   There are two different lines we read inside out crystal ball: the point spread (aka the line) and the money line. Commonly we will use the term “the line” when referring to the point spread.  Also let’s be clear I write this purely for entertainment purposes.   Consider it chewing gum for the mind of the avid sports fan, or a clue for someone playing an office pool who doesn’t care about football.   Once I worked with a woman who picked birds, animals and fish in that order and won the office pool three times.  While I am fascinated by the mechanism I do not support or condone gambling.  I do not promise results.  Any losses incurred by relying on information written here or in any future postings are not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Wilkes-Barre, Entercom Communications, its holdings or its subsidiaries.   

Remember the point spread is not a prediction of the game’s outcome.  It’s a prediction of how people wager in Vegas sports parlors.  In a sports book one wagers 6 units to win 5.  The book (betting house) has no interest in who wins the game.  He wants an equal amount of money wagered on each side.  For example this Sunday the Packers are in Philadelphia for a game that is supposed to resemble a reenactment of the last Eagles’ championship 50 years ago.  If 6 units are wagered on the packers the book wants 6 units wagered on the Eagles.  If the Packers win, the book returns the 6 units from the packer wager and keeps the 6 units wagered on the Eagles.  The book then pays the packer wager 5 units from the 6 collected on the Eagles wager.  In the end the house made one unit.  If the outcome were reversed and the Eagles win, the book would return the ^ units from the Eagles wager and pay out 5 units collected from the Packers wager.  No matter who wins, the house collects one unit. 

Those of you who were Sopranos fans may recall after Big Pussy got “whacked,” Christopher took over the sports book operation.  Christopher set his spreads based on his game predictions and not wager predictions and the book hemorrhaged money.  Remember the book never cares who wins.  It’s a mantra I’ll repeat countless times this year.

There are two ways to read the line.  The first is to look at the schedule and make up your own line, and then compare it to the published lines.  If you predict the Packers are a 3 point favorite only to find out they are a 1 point underdog your instinct should lead you towards picking Green Bay.   The second step is to follow the line throughout the week.  If the Line opens with the Packers as a three point favorite on Monday, and by Friday the Packers are a 4 point favorite the line is shouting at you.  An imbalance of money is wagered on the Packers and the book wants to make the Eagles more a more compelling bet.  In other words the line follows the money.  Some of you may recall 1979 when the Steelers played the Cowboys in the Superbowl.  The line opened with the Cowboys as 5 point underdogs.  An overwhelming amount of money was wagered on Dallas, prompting the line two move a whopping 2 points.  When the Cowboys were only 3 point dogs a ton of money was laid down on the Steelers.  In the middle was 4 points.  The game ended with the Steelers as 35-31 victors.  If you bought the Cowboys +5 and then Steelers -3 you won both sides of the wager.  Vegas lost their shirt that Sunday.  For that reason a 1 ½ point move is a HUGE move and worthy of attention. 

The money line is the one the looks like “-110.”  It means you have to wager 110 to win 100.  A line that read s“+115” means if you wager 100 you stand to win 115.  Its more commonly seen in the sports pages associated with baseball, but there is also a money line with football albeit not usually published in the average newspaper.   A lopsided money line that reads “Green Bay +90/Philadelphia +115” is a prediction of the game.  If the book is willing to pay out less for one than the opponent, that team in the eyes of the book is the true favorite.  The greater the margin, the stronger the favorite.   The money line almost never changes.  When it does it should grab you by the lapels and scream “NOTICE ME!”

Let’s take a look at some opening day match-ups!

FALCONS (-2 ½) over Steelers.  The Steelers need to prove they can field a reliable quarterback not named Roethlisberger.  Until Big Ben gets out of the Commissioner’s purgatory I wouldn’t hold my breath it will happen. Byron Leftwich’s injury forces the Steelers to start either unproven and untested Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch who most likely would have been cut had it not been for the Leftwich injury.  Don’t be shocked if Pittsburgh starts 0-4 this year.  The line opened with the Steelers as 1 ½ point favorites and moved a whopping 4 points.  Such a move was allowed in part because the line was set before the final preseason games were played.  That said if the line were a politician he’d be labeled a flip flopper.  Log Cabin doesn’t have enough syrup to cover that waffle.  The Falcons are 10-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last 12 opening day games.  That works for me. 

EAGLES (+3) Over Packers.  The line opened with The Eagles as one point favorites.  The move is no doubt related to the inability of the Eagle Offence to score a touchdown in the preseason.  Some coaches try and win big in the preseason hoping it seeds a mindset for the season.  Chuck Knoll believed this.  Eagles coach Andy Reid does not.  An Eagles preseason is about evaluating players without giving other teams film to craft a game plan.  Kevin Kolb’s 2 consecutive 300 yard starts last season is a better indicator than the preseason.  The difference in this game is the Eagle Defense.  The Eagles are 9-2-1 ATS at home over their last 12, and 7-2 ATS against Green bay over their last nine meetings.   Sing it with me: “Fly eagles fly…”

COWBOYS  (-3.5) over Redskins.   I truly believe Donovan McNabb will make the Redskins a better team, even a dark horse for a wild card spot.  I truly believe Tony Romo will be playing in another city by 2013 without ever reaching the lofty expectations of the Cowboy fan base.  Romo however plays very well in September, and the Redskins offensive line doesn’t yet have the athletes needed for Mike Shannahan’s running scheme.  The Cowboys are 9-4-1 ATS in September while the Redskins are 3-11 ATS over their last 14 at home.  Assuming the Pokes don’t mail it in at Fed Ex field they’ll be partying in Dallas Sunday night.  Take the Cowboys.

49ERS (-3) over Seahawks.  It’s becoming obvious that the 49ers are getting it together while the Seahawks are not.  The 49ers may make the playoffs because they’re in the weakest division.  That “one eyed man in the land of the blind” thing.  Cutting TJ Houshmandzadeh (yes, I googled that) says to me one big money player to this team does not a difference make.  Don’t be surprised if the fans in the “twelfth player” section are wearing bags in their heads by mid October.  The 49ers are 12-5-4 ATS over their last 21, while the Seahawks are 3-8 ATS their last 11 against the NFC.  There’s no reason to expect the Seahawks to do anything but lay an egg here, so lay the three points.  I like the 49ers.

Cardinals (-4) over the Rams.  Sam Bradford my eventually be the answer in St. Louis.  But not this week.  The Rams have more problems than any one player can fix, especially a rookie quarterback.  Over the past 10 years the Rams are 1-8-1 ATS on opening day, and 7-21 ATS against the NFC.  This is not “the greatest show on turf.”   Cardinals in this one. 

That’s how I see it.  Enjoy the weekend!

The Nicholas Brother were grew up in early 20th century Philadelphia.  Sons of a musician father i suspect they were neither poor nor wealthy.  Like most in the middle class their comfort level and standard of living ebbed and flowed.  The Nicholas Brothers could dance.  They were part of the jazz revolution in New York and were mainstays at the Cotton Club.  If you saw David Lee Roth in his prime his stage presence was an outgrowth of the Nicholas Brothers.  Roth borrowed heavily from Peter Wolf,  who borrowed heavily from James Brown, who was the Nicholas Brothers incarnate. 

I don’t know if either Fayard or Harold harbored a secret ambition to be a doctor, lawyer or teacher.  When you see them dance I am sure you will agree  that no one could possiblybe that good at anything if they didn’t really love it.  They had to love it in order to put the time and sweat into achieving the level of greatness they reached.  They also had to live in a place where they were free to pursue their passion.   The clip bellow is from the movie Stormy Weather.   This is what freedom looks like.  Enjoy!

Happy 4th,

LF

I grew up outside of Philadelphia, but I went to school at Wyoming Seminary.  It gave me a rare dual citizenship that most high school students don’t experience.  Periodically there would be a show at the Kingston Armory (I saw the Doobie Brothers there in 78) or the Paramount before it became the F.M. Kirby Center.  In Scranton the Irem Temple would occasionally host a show.  There were some good shows at the Broome County Arena if you wanted to drive.     When the 80s came the Station (now Market Street ) brought some great shows to town.  I saw the Ramones there, also the Band, Greg Kihn, Simon Townshend, Leon Russell,  and Poco to name a few.  Those nights again were events. 

Looking back summer in the City of Brotherly Love in the late 70s and 80s proved to be a great time and place to be young.  With Basketball and hockey season long over the Spectrum was booked almost continuously all summer long.  There was also the Civic Center, the Tower(still one of the greatest rock ‘n roll venues on the planet), the TLA was coming into its own.  At the Empire Rock Room in the Northeast you could hear Robert Hazard and the Heroes or the Hooters.  There was always a punk band at the Hot Club.  Names who signed the bathroom wall included Chucky and Delbert Africa of the infamous MOVE organization.  I doubt they were ever there, but it added to the environment.  I saw Johnny Thunders there.  Grendel’s lair on South street, Stars on Second & Bainbridge.  In 1981 U2 played both the Bijou Café and Ripley’s Music Hall.  The cover was $4.00.  On a hot August night in 11979 I saw Scorpions, AC/DC and Ted Nugent for an $8.00 ticket including the ticketmaster fee.

My friends and I would work during the day and listen to the cassettes, and then drove into the city at night to see the band.  Plans were usually spontaneous and tickets were often bought at the door. You could do that back then because the show was announced only 2 or three weeks before the gig.   If you paid a scalper $10 you got ripped off. 

The best part was you didn’t have to pick and choose which shows you saw because of price.  You could see everyone.  I had no idea who Peter Himmelman was when my buddy Penn suggested I find a date and go with him and his girl.  Penn got a hot tip from his girlfriend’s sister that based on his album Himmelman was a can’t miss event.  When was the last time you bought a pair of tickets on the recommendation of a friend’s girlfriend’s older sister?  25 years ago you could do that.  A concert cost little more than a movie.  My date was a girl I met at lunch.  We ended up dating the rest of the summer until we went away to different schools.  The show was THAT good.  By the way if you ever get a chance to see Peter Himmelman I guarantee you’ll email me and write “Fontaine how can anyone be this good and no one’s ever heard of him?!”  I’ll tell you it’s an unusual 19 year old who has a similar experience today as the price of concert tickets are almost prohibitive. 

Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers have a song “Money Becomes King.”  It’s about how going to a show has changed over the years.  It’s my youth in a song.  August 8 there’s a concert in town.  A quality band at a comfortable venue at a reasonable price, just barely more than a movie.  Buy a ticket and go.  Make the statement to promoters everywhere that in NEPA we’ll support quality shows at a reasonable price.  Buy a ticket and let yourself again feel the thrill of something new on a whim.

LF

Click here to discover Peter Himmelman

Jethro Tull – Too Old To Rock ‘n Roll: Too Young To Die

Ian Anderson wrote these words as he approached his 30^th birthday.  Hippies in the US and Mods and Rockers in the UK, they were the post war generation who wanted change but weren’t sure how to get it.   Now Anderson found himself about to be enshrined in the club he rebelled against – 30!  Chuck Berry was 32 when he crowned himself Johnny B. Goode yet that fact was lost on this new generation.  Bo Diddley was on the cusp of 30 when he declared “I’m am man” and asked “Who Do You Love?” He was 32 and when he released “Mona.”  Bill Haley was staring down the barrel of 30 when he released “Rock Around the Clock.”  The dirty truth is teenagers were shaking it to old men in their 30’s ever since Alan Freed coined the phrase “Rock ‘n Roll.” 

We all survived that 30 threshold, But in the 80’s came the dreaded 40.  The Icons from the 60s who were still making records: Mick Jagger, Pete Townshend, Jerry Garcia, were all turning 40 and the question was raised again: How old is too old?  We got some relief when Don Henley went back to his summer haunt and found the “deadhead sticker on a Cadillac.”  Could it be we could have careers, be responsible and still rock ‘n roll?  The Grateful Dead made further speculation moot.  “I will get by, I will survive.”  Jerry passed on a few years later.  No one will deny it was the bitter fruit of a lifestyle that no doubt shaved substantial time off the back end of his life. 

Thank goodness for the Rolling Stones releasing Voodoo Lounge because it trampled down the “50” argument before it began.  Grunge was fading into “alternative” (that’s what happens when you label your music, by the way.  You have to keep relabeling the box). The Who greeted the new millennium still a much coveted concert ticket. 

In the dawn of the second decade of the 21^st century everyone’s too old.  Depending on the blog/facebook page you read it seems The Who and the Rolling Stones embarrassed themselves at their Superbowl halftime gigs.  Really?  I thought they looked pretty good in the most trying of situations.  The sound check is the night before, then the stage is disassembled only to be hurried together in 8 minutes and you play.  It’s never the same as it was the previous night.  Would Mick have been easier to accept if he pranced in a $2K business suit instead of spandex?  If Pete ditched the leather jacket for Armani would it have gone over better? 

John Gotti said “In the end all we have is memories.”  I guess that’s never truer than in Rock ‘n Roll.  In the end you have to fight you’re fans’ memories. If you saw The Who in ’78 does that mean every time you see them it must be 1978 all over again?  Even if you’re closer to 50 than 20?  The only band I know to pull off that trick is Kiss.  Taking the makeup off in the 80;s was their second best idea.  The best idea was putting it back on.  They’ve become a tribute band to themselves, playing the same notes and doing the same shtick for 35 years.  I’m not knocking it, it’s a quality show.  For some it will be one of the biggest nights of their summer.  Still, if you watch Gene Simmons’ reality show he’ll take you into his plastic surgeons office before the tuck.  So why isn’t he over the hill? Kabuki makeup?  If the band performed without the 7” heels and the leather would they seem silly singing “I wanna rock ‘n roll all night and party every day?” 

I’ll leave you with one final point.  I’ve included a link to the Scorpions Raised on Rock video.  The Scorpions for those not up on their history came together in 1965.  Three years after the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, a year after The Who.  The first time I saw them was in 1979, their first US tour (it took them 13 years to be an overnight sensation in the US).  The were the first act on a bill with AC/DC and Ted Nugent.  By the way the ticket was $8 including the ticketmaster fee (there’s a memory I miss, the $8 ticket).  They worked and I thought they were quality, though the never became “my band.”  I like some of their things, though I really never warmed up to much of it.  The song fits their sound for the past 30 years and the video is a nice retrospect of their career from bigger than life stages to pick guitars and 80s fashion.  I think it’s a great statement: HEY! WE CAN STILL DO IT AND (bleep) YOU IF YOU SAY WE CAN’T! 

I’d really like to know what you think.  And I’ll post some of the best responses. 

LF

The truth is hall of fame voting is subjective. Popularity has as much to do with getting in as a lifetime body of high performance work. Has Ray Lewis sufficiently rehabbed his reputation after that obstruction of justice verdict several years ago? I think he gets in. I’m not sure if he’s first ballot. He should be. I’ve seen Ray play. Ray owns the middle of the field when he’s on it like no one else I’ve ever seen. Not Harry Carson, Brian Urlacher, Dick Butkis, Mike Singletary or Willie Lanier. Tom Brady probably gets in, but it’s not quite sealed. Tom gets hurt again and clings to a few subpar years trying to chase the past and he could play himself out of the hall. Kurt Warner almost did. After last year I think he redeemed himself and gets in, but I don’t think he’s a first ballot lock. Really I see two in the game right now: Terrel Owens (groan if you want but outside of Jerry Rice he’s the best I’ve ever seen) and Payton Manning. Payton is that rare stuff that lives up to the hype of being the first overall selection.

That brings us to Bill, as in Belichick. In coaching there’s a holy trinity of Amos Alonzo Stagg, Pop Warner and Vince Lombardi. Belichick was almost in the ultimate coaching ring of honor, the rarest of rarified air. Alas, Bill, why didn’t you punt? Forget the game, we’re talking your legacy here. Seriously, send Ray Perkins a Christmas card this year. Ray was the NY Giant coach who signed off on a call that had Joe Pasarchick handing off to Larry Csonka that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the “Miracle of the Meadowlands.” Ray’s blunder is still considered the dumbest call in the history of the NFL. That’s the good news, Bill. The bad news is you get to take the heat for making the right call. Manning was Michael Jordan-like in the zone hot. I know like you did that punting and giving ol’ Payton 40 more yards to work with was futile. Your best chance to win was to hold on to the ball and run the clock out. It’s not your fault the ref blew the spot on that 4th and two call. Like so many times in life when we make the right decision for all the right reasons and things just don’t work out. At least it wasn’t surgery. right Bill? Do yourself a favor, next time think of yourself and punt. If your defense caves in the fans and pundits will blame your players, and you’ll still be the hero. Whether your team wins or not.

Alright here are the games as I see them this week. Remember any losses incurred by relying on said information is the result of your own dumbness.

Eagles -9 over Redskins. The birds went into the season with lofty ambition and have come down to earth with a paltry (poultry?) 5-4-1 record against the spread. This is the time of year when Philadelphia suddenly gets it together and goes off on a miracle ride and makes the playoffs. The Redskins on the other hand play like a team truly snake bitten, and they know it. Scoring more than 20 points only three times this season does not a good road bet make. The zippo’s out of butane. Eagles in a beat down.

Rams +3 over Seahawks. The Rams are horrible. The Seahawks are average. But the Rams can run the ball, they’re home and they’ve covered 4 of their last 5. That’s a trend I’ll stay with. Rams, baby.

Patriots +3 over Saints. The Saints may be the most complete team in the league right now, but I’m not sold on the inevitability of a Creole Champion. The Saints have trailed at some point in their last 4 games and covered once in those four. And that was only because the Bucs are challenging the Lions for the first pick in the 2010 draft. This is where the bubble pops. Take the pats and the points.

49ers – 4 ½ over Jaguars. Jacksonville is usually the biggest team in the league. That may be why they can’t get out of the way. Remember a few years ago when Jack Del Rio decided the best way to encourage his team was to bring in a log and an ax? That motivational speech went horribly wrong when the punter buried the ax in his thigh. The Jags have covered once in their last 6. Hardly the stuff winners are made of. 49ers wear gold for a reason. Take the bay area boys.

Vikings – 10 over the Bears. 10 points is a lot to lay. Consider that the Bears have covered only once on the road all year and that 10 spot looks reasonable.

That’s my five. Enjoy the games.