Remember it’s only a game, or NFL week 8

Every once in a while things go your way, and then something happens to remind you what’s important.  I got some bad news about a very good friend I;ve known almost 30 years.  Most likely he won’t be around to see the week 9 posting.  Late in the summer he scored a ticket to an Eagles pre season game.  He’d never been to the “Linc” and was looking forward to a typical Eagles experience.  We ate beforehand at Chicky and Pete’s, did the crab fries. We found ourselves in great seats.  It was just a great night.  Its not so much the games themselves as it is the people we hang with while watching the games tha make the experience worthwhile.  Just keep it in mind this weekend while you’re trying to beat your bud to the last pizza slice.

Not a bad week last week, again pretty sweet going 4-1 against the spread.  Our season record is looking good at 18-15-2.  We’re starting to move into  the black.  Tony Romo has his problems.  It may be the end of the Cowboy’s season, and most likely the end of Wade Phillips tenure as head coach.  Hey, those guys make millions for a reasons.  Let’s jump into the games.  Remember any loses incurred by relying on the following information is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Communications, Entercom Northeast, it properties or its subsidiaries. 

Chiefs (-7) over Bills.  Sure, some while argue Ryan Fitzpatrick has the second highest Quarterback ranking in the league.   That’s not hard to do when you are playing from behind every game.  I’m not impressed. We’re at the halfway point of the season and the Bills have cut their opening day starting QB and traded their star tailback.  Those moves never work out.  The Chiefs meanwhile are a cover machine going 7-1 ATS over their last 8 games, and 8-1 ATS their last nine games in week 8.  Take the Chiefs.

Jaguars (+ 7 ½) over Cowboys.  John Kitna is not the answer in Dallas.  This looks to be a low scoring snooze run feast.  If it’s close, I’ll take the points.  Jaguars

Jets (-6) over Packers.  If it weren’t for the Steelers the Jets would be the class of the conference.  The Packers on the other hand look like a team that should be great but can’t figure out how.  J-E-T-S, JETS!

Patriots (-5) over Vikings.  Brett Favre looks old and cold, and now has a busted ankle.  He just doesn’t have that big play magic anymore.  At least he doesn’t need his feet to text.   Patriots in a romp

Steelers (pick) over Saints.  The Saints are champs who almost never cover.  The Steelers are a machine!  This one should be fun.  Sttelers!

That’s how I see it.  Enjoy the Games!

Prognosticator

Yes, it’s that time of year for those things that go bump in the night. I love how every October the movie stations bring out horror movies of all type. I know the new ones are very bloody but give me an old black and white any day. Nothing sends a chill up my spine like Dracula so what does it to you?

And the hits just keep on coming, or NFL Week 7

Finally the week we’ve been waiting for.  4-0-1. That brings our season record to a solid 14-14-2 against the spread.  Not bad.  Still not quite the break even mark, but we’re inching towards the black.

It seems this week the NFL has taken a knee jerk reaction to some of the violent hits that have occurred.  I think the league has a duty to protect the players, but at the same time there is an inherent risk to the game that cannot be regulated away.  It is why they players are millionaires.  That may seem cold at first read, but put it into social perspective.  All over NEPA there are hundreds of men and women working on road and bridge repair.  They wear protective clothing and safety gear (PPE or personal protective equipment for those not up on industrial jargon).  Yet they run the risk of harm, permanent disability, and even death, yet our highway workers make in three years what a well paid NFL player makes in a game.  The problem with the league fixing the rules are the unintended consequences that can result. 

One solution discussed is widening the field.  The Canadian league players on a 110 yard by 5 yard field.  The Desean Jacksons of the league will score 40 touchdowns a year once they break to the outside.  Once a running back turns the corner, its big gain city.  It will change the NFL as we know it, and that’s not a good idea. A professor at Penn State has mentioned the league should have a weight limit of 275 lbs.  That isn’t practical.  So the league has decided it will suspend players for helmet to helmet hits, or aggressive head shots.  That’s well and good if they get the call right.  The shot Shawn Merrimen took last week was a cheap shot.  James Harrison had one hit he was fined for, and one ruled just a good hard hit.  The Jackson/Robinson hit in last weeks Eagles/Falcons game has dropped a 50K fine on Robinson.  I am not sure what either player could have done to avoid the collision.  We’re talking about two 200 lb. men running at world class speed (about 20 mph) and according to ESPN generating a hit at about 160 “Gs.”  About an eight of that energy is enough to snap a healthy man’s spine.  The thing is, players have to play all out or they get hurt.  I maintain and whole heartedly believe that if either player held up or flinched, that player would have a more serious if not permanent injury.  Sometimes accidents happen, but if the players are worried about losing money from a suspension they can’t play at their best.  It’s also the middle of the season which is the wrong time to develop changes in techniques. This is a recipe for disaster.  I can only hope the league understands it’s over reacting and calms down the approach slightly.

Alright, lets take a look at this weeks schedule.  Remember any losses incurred by relying on the following information is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Communications, Entercom Northeast, its properties or its subsidiaries. 

Eagles (+3) over Titans.  Last week the experts were touting the Falcons as an elite NFC team.  The Eagles made short work of them, so that means Either the Eagles are good, or the Falcons are frauds.  The heads seem to be leaning towards the Falcons not being the real deal.  In Philadelphia the quarterback controversy is brewing big time.  The scribes have to love this.  They spent years creating one the didn’t exist with Donovan McNabb until they ran him out of town.  Now they have a real controversy and they aren’t sure what to write about.  Well let’s look at some concrete facts.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS their last 8 in October while the Titans are 2-10 ATS when playing teams with winning records.  So why are the Titans favored when Vince Young is in doubt?  Fly Eagles Fly.

Steelers (-3) over Dolphins.  The Steelers may again prove themselves to be the best team in the league.  The dolphins may prove themselves to be just good enough not to make the playoffs.  You want some crazy numbers?  The Steelers are 6-2 ATS their last 8 played in week 7.  The Dolphins are 15-41-1 ATS their last 57 home games.  That’s about the last 7 years.  Hold onto the 70s if you want Dolphin fans…oh, right, the Steelers were the real dynasty that decade, too.  Put the fires in the grouper sandwich and go Steelers.

Patriots (+3 ½)over Chargers.  The Bolts are supposed to be the class of the conference, but apparently haven’t  gotten the memo.  The Patriots may not have Superbowl Power after trading Randy Moss, but they find a way to win.  The Chargers on the other hand have to figure out life after letting Ladanian Tomlinson go.  The Bolts are 2-6 ATs their last 8 in October.  Anyone see anything to think it won’t be 2-9?  I like the Patriots.

Giants (+3) Over Cowboys.  Here’s a laugher, the Giants are riding high, Tony Romo makes the same mistakes in big games he’s made since entering the league and the Giants are 19-7 ATS their last 26 road games.   Ha ha ha…take the Giants

Browns (+15) Over Saints.  Lets make one thing clear, I have no illusions the Browns will win this game.  They just won’t loose by more than 2 touchdowns.  This number is way too big to lay.  The Browns have covers 9 of their last 12 in October and 9 of their last 14 overall.  Meanwhile the Saints couldn’t cover a pebble with a bed sheet going 2-7 ATS  on turf.  Besides, every plays the champs tough.  Go Browns!

That’s how I see it.  Enjoy the games!

The Prognosticator

Holy shmoly! We do another 1-4 week there’s going to be some trouble.  Right when we were crawling back towards the black we fall backward to 10-14-1 against the spread.  Not good, not good at all.  It’s a weird league this year.  Some of the teams who were supposed to be run away favorites stink out loud (see the 1-3 Cowboys).  Others are inconsistent, like the Giants who look horrible one week and then look like contenders the next.  Does anyone have a clue?  You look at the prognosticators on Tv they’re all picking over/unders because they don’t know, either.  Still, right now it looks  like the only thing surer than the kiss of death is the kiss of yours truly. 

So this week, we won’t think, we’ll just pick.  Remember any losses incurred by relying on the following information is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom communications, Entercom Northeast, it’s properties or subsidiaries.  Lets look at the schedule:

Chiefs (+5) over Texans.  Every year since the leagues went to the 4 division conference format 3 teams go from worst to first.  The Chiefs will be one of those teams.  They’re tough, scrappy, and The Texans showed me little last week against the Giants.  Add to it the Chiefs are 6-2 ATS their last 8 on the road.  All arrowheads point to K.C.

Colts(-3) over Redskins.  The colts really aren’t that bad yet are they?  Are the Redskins that good?  Is Rod Serling in the announcer booth?  This isnl;t the kind of games the Colts lose.  Besides they’re 7-1-1 ATS when playing teams with winning records,  and 11-4-1they;re last 15 on the road.  Looks like the Shoes are the play here.

49ers (-6 ½) over Raiders.  Those Raiders looked good finally beating the Chargers last week after a long drought against the bolts.  If you saw Pulp Fiction insert that famous line From Mr. Wolf about calling an early victory.  The Raiders are 2-6 ATS their last 8 in week six.  The 49ers are a team that could get hot anytime.  I like the Niners here.

Jets (-3) over Broncos.  Yeah, I know the altitude, but the Jets are far better than theBroncos wherever they play.  The Jets are 7-1 ATS their last 8 on the road, and 8-2 ATS their last 10 within the conference.  Good enough.  Really, Kyle Orton?  J-E-T-S, JETS! JETS! JETS!

Titans (-3) over Jaguars.  The Jags are talking about maybe benching Quarterback David Garrard for Luke McCown.  Wow!  I bet Byron Leftwich isn’t looking that bad these days.  Oh, right, the Jags ran him out of town.  The Titans are one of these teams that will win 10 games every year, and they do it by clobbering teams like the Jaguars.  The Titans are 34-16-1 ATS in October, while the Jags are 8-25 ATS their last 33 on grass.   Titans here.

That’s how I see it! Enjoy the games!

The Prognosticator

Once upon a time I went on air and talked on and on about how great it would be to shoot my own deer. I even posted a picture of a rifle one time after the deer had been particularly hard on the broccoli in my garden. So I got a gun, a 30-06, and bought some ammunition. I had a guy friend of mine offer to teach me how to shoot, and some gun and hunter safety. We took off for the REAL country, for his friend’s house halfway into Susquehanna county outside of Meshoppen. The guy has 90 acres and has a bench and target set up just for shooting. The guy’s daughter, and her 2 foster sons, came with us too. My friend even paid for breakfast at Purkey’s Pink Apple (the buffet was pretty awesome, actually).

So we get to the site, and my friend took the first shot with my rifle. That was it for me. It was SOOOO loud! Like a nuclear explosion. I could see it had a hell of a kick, too. I had on swimmer’s ear plugs AND those headphones you buy to cancel out noise. Wasn’t enough. I simply COULD NOT shoot that gun. They all thought it was pretty funny (at least he wasn’t mad!).  I walked up to the house and sat and watched THEM shoot for hours.

In saying this I am telling y’all that never again will you hear me talking about shooting a deer. Unless I win the lottery or find a $500 dollar bill on the street, and go out and buy a crossbow. ‘Cause that’s the ONLY way it’ll ever happen.

Oh, and if YOU get a deer, I’d sure accept some venison!

Slow and steady…or NFL week 5

We went 3-2 last week.  That brings our record for the year to 9-10-1 against the spread.  Jimmy “the greek” always said the goal is to have enough left so you can still play tomorrow.  One good week and we’ll be on the plus side of things.  A few things happened during the week, one being the trading of Randy Moss.  Albeit he leads the league in drops with 4, he still had to be accounted for.  Moss is still the best leaping receiver in the league.  Combined with Mr. Accuracy (aka Tom Brady) there was a constent need for double coverage which opened up the lanes for what’s known as “death by (Wes) Welker. “  With Moss gone will Welker be as lethal?  And in Minnesota does Brett Favre have anything left to get the ball to Moss?  An interesting side note, if you have Moss on your fantasy team he has the potential to play in 17 games this year.  One less bye to manage.

In Philadelphia Michael Vick was looking like the ultimate weapon.  Almost like Michael Jordan launching a 22 foot rainbow, when Vick threw the ball you almost expected someone to catch it for a big gain.  The thing is with the speed at wideout the Eagles have, if you play Jackson and Maclin in zone, your backfield turns their back on Vick, which opens up huge running lanes.  Leave someone around to “spy” Vick and someone is single covered and big gain potential happens.  Seriously, Have you ever seen a quarterback have as many runs up the middle with no one around him?  Moses didn’t have as much separation parting the Red Sea.  Once Kolb came into the game the Redskins pinched the corners and played 2 deep down the middle.  What’s funny is after a decade plus of complaining they never run the ball enough, the Eagles ran the ball a lot in the first half, and everyone complained “why don’t they throw the ball deep?” 

In Pittsburgh the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back.  Should be fun. 

One more thought, the officiating is horrible,  I thought the playoff officiating was bad last year.  Holding calls have sky rocketed as moving the umpire exposes him to a view not previously seen.  The players have yet to adapt to it.  When they changed the blocking rules on kick offs and punts years ago, it took about a decade for the players to catch up.  Two holding calls on your stud left tackle looks to be the norm in the coming weeks.  That’s okay; the Refs are making up for it by running the game poorly.  That ex chief of officials who wasted your time on Fox is right maybe half the time.  I’m not saying he doesn’t know the rules or procedures. He does.  It’s that the officiating crews are so bad they’ve become unpredictable. 

Alright, let’s pick some games.  Remember this is just for fun. Any losses incurred by relying on this information is your own doing and not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or it’s subsidiaries.

Packers (-3) over Redskins.  What? The Redskins played Philadelphia tough and they’re favored over the packers?  Really?  Does anyone realize McNabb had an paltry 124 yards passing and a QB rating of 60?  The Pack is 9-3-1 ATS over their last 13, enough to carry them past a field goal in DC.  Back the Pack!

Texans (-3) over Giants.   The bears played flat last week after a dramatic comeback the week earlier against their hated rivals, The Packers.  The Giants still have nothing.  The Giants are 1-7 ATS their last 8 on grass, and 2-8 ATS when playing teams with winning records.  But Tom Caughlin’s facial expressions are always good for an out loud laugh, so the afternoon won’t be a total waste.  Texans the play here.

Eagles (+3 ½) over 49ers.  Can anyone explain how the Eagles are 3 and a half point dog against an 0-4 team ?  The Birds are 8-3 ATS their last 11 in week 5 (seriously we go to every length to find this stuff).  Meanwhile the 49ers are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 in October.  And the Eagles have won the last 4 meetings.  That’s enough for me.  Birds.

Chargers (-6) over Raiders.  Oakland changed QBs last week and managed to play worse.  This has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it.  The Raiders are 15-36 ATS over their last 51 at home.   That’s about 5 years.  That’s awful.  Go Bolts.

Jets (-4) over Vikings.  Under the October skies in New Jersey, the Jets had but one mission….find Brett Favre and punish him.  All apologies to John Facenda and NFL films (a direct rip off if you didn’t recognize it).  Still, if Rex Ryan is anything like the “old man”(Buddy) it’s clobberin’ time.  The Jets are 7-2 ATS at home over their last 9.  Randy Moss will run “go” routes.  The Jets Defense will be a little too much.  Fireman Ed will be singing sweetly. J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!

 Jim Rockford, Hannibel Smith, The Commish…shows like Riptide, The Greatest American Hero, Silk Stalkings, Wiseguy…all the work of TV producer Stephen J. Cannell. With over 40 TV shows to his credit there was a time in the 80’s when entire nights on Tv belonged to him. Remember the guy at the end of the credits pounding away on an IBM typewriter, throwing the paper in the air? He died recently at the age of 69.