We’re off the schneid!  Or NFL Week 4

How about last week?  4-1, the lone loss coming as the Redskins decided to play beneath the Rams.  That brings our record to 6-8-1.  Remember 55% is the breakeven point.  Some traps to look out for.  The 49ers were supposed to be the best of the west(NFC West, that is)  They’ve dramatically underachieved at the start.  They’ve got too much talent to be this bad forever, unless they quit on the coach.  The idea that Mike Singletary would have trouble holding on “the room” seems an NFL blasphemy,  teams have quit on more accomplished coaches (see the Giants later in the column).  Likewise don’t expect a team like the Rams to play inspired ball the rest of the season based on one win.  Right around now is when the real teams step forward and play starts to become consistent.    It’s also the week byes come into play which means next week trends will become even more important.  Lets look at what we have this week.

Remember this is for bragging rights.  Any losses incurred by relying on the following information is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Enercom Communications, Entercom Northeast, its subsidiaries or its properties. 

Eagles (-6) over Redskins.  Michael Vick is playing lights out great.  At one point during last week’s game during the third quarter there was an eight minute stretch where Vick looked “stupid good.”  In one series Vick hit DeSean Jackson with a 45 yard dart between the 1 and the 0 throwing off his back foot.  Then Vick followed that play with a 22 yard scramble that found him walking into the end zone.  Its not supposed to be that easy.  When Joe Nameth was scouted out of Alabama, Raiders owner Al Davis described Broadway Joe as playing “downhill.” He meant Nameth played so much bigger than anyone else on the field, like he was standing on a hill.  Right now Michael Vick is playing downhill.  The Redskins have an awful offensive line, and their players are either less than perfectly suited for a 3-4 defense, or the haven’t figured out what to do.  McNabb will be cheered when he walks out of the tunnel. A proper thank you for his past effort in green.  They’ll cheer even louder when he gets sacked 8 times.  Plus the Eagles are 9-3-1 ATS at home.  Fly Eagles Fly….

Colts (-7 ½) Over Jaguars.  Obviously the Eagles/Jags game wasn’t national last week.  Jax tallied 184 total yards against an Eagle defense that’s still trying to get it together, including 54 passing yards.  The Colts are 10-2 ATS in October and 8-2 ATS their last 10 on the road.  Meanwhile the lowely Jaguars are 7-25 ATS on grass and 4-14 ATS at home.  Rumors they may be headed to L.A. aren’t helping.  Take the Colts

Texans (-3) over Raiders.  Really? Only laying three against the Raiders? I’ll take that any day!  The Texans will make the Playoffs while the Raiders schedule Tee Times come January.  Besides, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in week 4.  Fortunes for the vaunted silver and black won’t change until Al Davis buys a calendar and finds out we’re in the 21^st century.  Texans are the play here

Bears (-4) over Giants.  The Bears rallied big time Monday night to hold off the Packers.  The Giants on the other hand are a team with problems.  A few years ago the Giants won a Superbowl over a much better Patriot team because of Michael Strahan and a scary dominant defensive front.  Now that front is ordinary, and the rest of the team is falling apart.  Rumors in the New York rags suggest they’ve had enough with Head Coach Tom Caughlin.  Not good.  The Giants are 1-8 ATS against teams with winning records.  That stinks.  Bears big time here.

Patriots (-1) over Dolphins.  Miami’s good New England’s better. This is about the time the Pats break off 6 wins in a row and walk away with the AFC East.  Pats in a tight one.

That’s how I see it.  Line up your special snacks and enjoy!

The prognosticator

You know you’re supposed to buy local and keep your purchases as close to home as you can. There are many obvious benefits to buying local produce….it’ll be fresher, you know your neighbors have grown it, you’ll help support family farms, keep farmers from leaving and selling the land to developers.. However there are many more things…in fact most things…that you should buy locally.

Several studies have shown that when you buy from an independent, locally owned business, rather than a nationally owned businesses, significantly more of your money is used to make purchases from other local businesses, service providers and farms — this strengthens the economic base of the community. Locally owned businesses buy stuff locally, which requires less transportation.

Local businesses are owned by people who live in this community, are less likely to leave, and are more invested in the community’s future. Local business owners donate more to local charities than non-local owners.

I don’t need to demonize the huge “box” stores or tell you why you SHOULDN’T buy there. Horrible treatment of employees, shuttering and boarding up of small town downtowns, Importing goods made in sweat shops to keep prices down. And despite all that, sometimes you just gotta shop there…it’s hard to resist when something costs half as much. But try & minimize it. Even if you have to pay more, it’s worth it in Karma dollars.

Hold your nose, we’ll try again.

2-7-1 against the spread is no way to start the season for anyone.   There is usually some volatile action the first few weeks until teams settle into their roles.  And then there are those times when dumb things happen.  Take Philadelphia.  They won the game with 5:17 left.  Unfortunately Detroit insisted they play the final 5:17 and the Eagles almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  Quentin Mikaell and Asante Samual can’t look like they never played together before all season, can they? Then there was the end of the Redskin-Texan game.  I wasn’t sure anyone wanted to win that one.  Brett Favre is looking old. 

One innovation I like this year is the enlarge section CBS uses on replay.  It’s a nice use of technology.  Fox’s use of an ex referee to explain controversial calls while they are being reviewed seems counter-productive.  It doesn’t help when the refs don’t seem to agree with the expert.  If I didn’t know better I’d say that guy is the same guy who writes the legal speak you get from your credit card company from time to time.

There are five games I like this week.  Feel free to pick against me in your pool.  It may have been a good strategy over the past two weeks.  Remember any losses incurred from relying on this information (why would you after I can’t pick anything close to a winner) is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or its subsidiaries.  Here we go:

Eagles (-3) over Jacksonville. Vick is the starter, and Stuart Bradley starts (whether he knows his name or not).  Jax is 7-23 ATS their last 31 games.  Need I say more?  Fly Eagles Fly….

Titans (+3) over Giants.  The Giants won a dramatic Superbowl 2 years ago with a dominating defensive front four. Now they have more holes than a county commissioner’s explanation.  The Giants have no business being a favorite after last weeks clueless performance.  Giants are 3-10 ATS their last 13. 

Chiefs (+1) over  49ers.  What did you see last Monday night to make you think The 49ers are turning things around?  The Chiefs are not only 2 and 0 but they covered both weeks.  Three’s the charm.  Chiefs here.

Steelers (-2 ½) over Buccaneers.  Twice I bet against Pittsburgh and twice I lost.  I’m not making that mistake again.  The Bucs are 2-12 ATS their last 12 at home.  Ugly wins count the same as pretty ones.  Steelers will have three of them when the sun sets Sunday.

Redskins (-4) over the Rams.  This is one of those games the Redskins win so the haters in Philadelphia can call sports radio and gripe about the McNabb trade.  The Rams are better than ’09 but not good enough.  The Rams are 9-21 their last 30 at home. 

There we are.  Enjoy your Sunday!

The Prognosticator

Not much to say after last week.  Normally when your prognosticator does well he pounds his chest and tells everyone.  Last week I laid an egg.  Going 0-4-1 is not much fun.  Many office pools consider a push (a.k.a a tie) to be a loss.  You’re thinking “thanks for nothing, guy.”    Bad weeks happen.  Being in the hole right from week one is not the best position, but we have 16 weeks and the playoffs to make up ground.  If you reach a 55% winning percentage you’ve broke even.  The season is a marathon, not a sprint.  It’s not that bad…yet.

A few thoughts about last week:  I was pleasantly surprised to see a touchdown overturned in Chicago.  The rule has been if you go to the ground with the ball you and come back up you have to have the ball.  Lion’s wideout Calvin Johnson had obvious control of the ball on the way down, and that had some people miffed.  Bob Costas said on NBC’s Football Night In America the league should reconsider the rule.  I think Costas has it wrong.  The Problem with the NFL is too many rules.  Those rules are brought about by instant replay, and commentators who aren’t exactly sure what went on.  The play is rerun a half dozen times at different angles and now you’re convinced they’re right.  As the cliché goes pictures don’t lie.  But commentators can persuade you into letting the pictures argue a wrong conclusion.  Johnson leaving the ball on the ground is no different than dropping the ball 3 inches before the goal line.  It’s a mental error.  If he stayed on the ground the score would have counted.  Next time hold on to the ball when you party in the end zone, Calvin.

One more thing: the fanatics who think an 18 game season is a good idea should pay attention to the dreck that was passed off as games last weekend.  Instead of three to four weeks of pretty lousy stuff, you can count on 5-6 weeks of substandard product. 

Alright, on to this weeks picks.  Remember any loses incurred by relying on the following information is not the responsibility of myself, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, its properties or its subsidiaries.  This is just for fun.

Eagles (-5 1/2)  over the Lions.  Amazing! Kevin Kolb gets a concussion and Michael Vick is announced as the starter and the line moves 3 points.  Those Kelly jerseys looked sweet, didn’t they?  Just like when I was a kid.  Unfortunately they honored the uniform by playing like they did when I was a kid.  I was born after the 1960 team won the championship.  I lived through King Hill and Steve Arrington at quarterback.  Although now that I think about it, that should make the Kolb experiment seem like cake.  It can’t be any worse than Bobby Hoying, right?  And don’t get too comfortable watching Michael Vick, either.  The team didn’t trade a franchise quarterback, a once in a generation quarterback in Donovan McNabb and sign Kolb for an additional 12 million to give up after a half.  The irony here is McNabb was traded because the press gave up on Ol’ 5 and decided he couldn’t win it all.  The same press who a few years ago said the problem with the Eagles was they scored too quickly.  That idea is so dumb I became dumber from having heard it.  The old QB is gone, the new QB got his bell rung and now after one week there’s a quarterback controversy. 

The Eagles are 6-2 Against The Spread when they play teams with losing records.  The Lions on the other hand are 3-7-2 ATS their last 12 against NFC foes.   Fly eagles Fly….take the birds.

Packers (-13 1/2) over the Bills.  13 and the hook is a lot to lay, especially in week 2.  Already the TV Heads are saying the Bills have a shot at going winless.  They’re that bad.  You would have thought the team could recover since trading Doug Flutie.  Looking at the Buffalo trend of 13-2 ATS in week 2 over the past 15 years is hard to ignore.  Then again, Buffalo is called the “city of no illusions” for a reason.  Those same Bills are 5-11 ATS when playing teams with winning records.  The Packers are 8-1-1 ATS over their past 10 games, 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 on grass, and 8-3 ATS their last 11 in Green Bay in September.  Pass the Brots and buy the Pack

Chiefs (-1 ½) over the Browns.  The Chiefs were 4 ½ point dogs against the mighty chargers last week and more than answered the call.  The Browns on the other hand were busy snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Tampa.  Jake Delhomme Del-blew it with two Del-interceptions in the second half.  It has to be a real drag to live in Cleveland and know your real team is in Baltimore, who’s real team is in Indianapolis.  The NFL makes strange bedfellows.  Those Chiefs are 11-1 ATS in weeks 2 and 14-5 ATS their last 19 in September.  Yummy!   Chiefs the play here.

Saints (-5 ½) over the 49ers.  The Niners were the sexy pick to win the NFC West this year.  Hey why not? They are as bad as anyone else in that division.  7-9 may win it.  The Saints flat out have too much talent.  Besides, Reggie Bush handed back his Heisman this week.  Do you think he wants to make a statement?
Saints in a walk

Titans (-5) over the Steelers.  Year after year Jeff Fisher turns out a winner.  When Norman Braman owned the Eagles and fired Buddy Ryan he decided to let Fisher walk so he could keep Richie Kotite.  Those in Tennessee should send Braman flowers and 60 year old scotch for his birthday.  This is the kind  of game the Steelers grind out and keep close.  Of course that’s when Roethlisberger plays. And that’s not this week.  Titans.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.  Enjoy the games!

The Prognosticator

In an area filled with Eagles, Steelers and Giants fans, it can be lonely being a Cleveland Browns fan. A What? Are you from Cleveland? How did this happen? Are you ill, do you need a doctor….those are just some of the comments I have heard over the years. No I not from Cleveland, in fact I have never been to the city. I am not ill, expect for the mental illness my wife believes I suffer from every Sunday in football season. My father was a Browns fan, his father was a Browns fan, and I grew up hearing about Otto, Jim Brown, Paul Brown and the other greats in the history of the team. The Browns were the Yankees of the football in the 50’s and early 60’s….winning championships year after year. Of course this is before the Super Bowl but still a champion is a champion. It’s been tough the past couple of decades, nothing really to cheer about since Bernie Kosar and those two damm games against Denver, but I’m better now. Believe it or not there are more of us, Browns fans, in NEPA than you might want to believe. Rocky of the KRZ Rocky and Sue for one, my friend from high school Frank and we even have a Browns Backers club in NEPA. A group of fellow Browns fans, that gather on Sundays to watch the team. We ran the table at the end of last year and it appears the schedule makers have the Browns set up for a couple of early wins. Who knows with a couple of breaks maybe 9-7 this year. One step at a time…..

Greetings from your Prognosticator!  It’s good to be back after a 2 year hiatus.  I’ve got my charts, data  and information banks updated an ready for a brand new season.  My pregame infrastructure is in place with  a new grill, a pantry full of snacks and  a spare fridge packed with anniversary labeled beer.  We’re more than ready here at the Prognosticator’s lair.

Before we start let’s review our base strategy for the coming weeks.  There are anywhere from 13 to 16 games depending on the week.   The key is to pick 5 or 6 games you feel strongly about.   There are two different lines we read inside out crystal ball: the point spread (aka the line) and the money line. Commonly we will use the term “the line” when referring to the point spread.  Also let’s be clear I write this purely for entertainment purposes.   Consider it chewing gum for the mind of the avid sports fan, or a clue for someone playing an office pool who doesn’t care about football.   Once I worked with a woman who picked birds, animals and fish in that order and won the office pool three times.  While I am fascinated by the mechanism I do not support or condone gambling.  I do not promise results.  Any losses incurred by relying on information written here or in any future postings are not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Wilkes-Barre, Entercom Communications, its holdings or its subsidiaries.   

Remember the point spread is not a prediction of the game’s outcome.  It’s a prediction of how people wager in Vegas sports parlors.  In a sports book one wagers 6 units to win 5.  The book (betting house) has no interest in who wins the game.  He wants an equal amount of money wagered on each side.  For example this Sunday the Packers are in Philadelphia for a game that is supposed to resemble a reenactment of the last Eagles’ championship 50 years ago.  If 6 units are wagered on the packers the book wants 6 units wagered on the Eagles.  If the Packers win, the book returns the 6 units from the packer wager and keeps the 6 units wagered on the Eagles.  The book then pays the packer wager 5 units from the 6 collected on the Eagles wager.  In the end the house made one unit.  If the outcome were reversed and the Eagles win, the book would return the ^ units from the Eagles wager and pay out 5 units collected from the Packers wager.  No matter who wins, the house collects one unit. 

Those of you who were Sopranos fans may recall after Big Pussy got “whacked,” Christopher took over the sports book operation.  Christopher set his spreads based on his game predictions and not wager predictions and the book hemorrhaged money.  Remember the book never cares who wins.  It’s a mantra I’ll repeat countless times this year.

There are two ways to read the line.  The first is to look at the schedule and make up your own line, and then compare it to the published lines.  If you predict the Packers are a 3 point favorite only to find out they are a 1 point underdog your instinct should lead you towards picking Green Bay.   The second step is to follow the line throughout the week.  If the Line opens with the Packers as a three point favorite on Monday, and by Friday the Packers are a 4 point favorite the line is shouting at you.  An imbalance of money is wagered on the Packers and the book wants to make the Eagles more a more compelling bet.  In other words the line follows the money.  Some of you may recall 1979 when the Steelers played the Cowboys in the Superbowl.  The line opened with the Cowboys as 5 point underdogs.  An overwhelming amount of money was wagered on Dallas, prompting the line two move a whopping 2 points.  When the Cowboys were only 3 point dogs a ton of money was laid down on the Steelers.  In the middle was 4 points.  The game ended with the Steelers as 35-31 victors.  If you bought the Cowboys +5 and then Steelers -3 you won both sides of the wager.  Vegas lost their shirt that Sunday.  For that reason a 1 ½ point move is a HUGE move and worthy of attention. 

The money line is the one the looks like “-110.”  It means you have to wager 110 to win 100.  A line that read s“+115” means if you wager 100 you stand to win 115.  Its more commonly seen in the sports pages associated with baseball, but there is also a money line with football albeit not usually published in the average newspaper.   A lopsided money line that reads “Green Bay +90/Philadelphia +115” is a prediction of the game.  If the book is willing to pay out less for one than the opponent, that team in the eyes of the book is the true favorite.  The greater the margin, the stronger the favorite.   The money line almost never changes.  When it does it should grab you by the lapels and scream “NOTICE ME!”

Let’s take a look at some opening day match-ups!

FALCONS (-2 ½) over Steelers.  The Steelers need to prove they can field a reliable quarterback not named Roethlisberger.  Until Big Ben gets out of the Commissioner’s purgatory I wouldn’t hold my breath it will happen. Byron Leftwich’s injury forces the Steelers to start either unproven and untested Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch who most likely would have been cut had it not been for the Leftwich injury.  Don’t be shocked if Pittsburgh starts 0-4 this year.  The line opened with the Steelers as 1 ½ point favorites and moved a whopping 4 points.  Such a move was allowed in part because the line was set before the final preseason games were played.  That said if the line were a politician he’d be labeled a flip flopper.  Log Cabin doesn’t have enough syrup to cover that waffle.  The Falcons are 10-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last 12 opening day games.  That works for me. 

EAGLES (+3) Over Packers.  The line opened with The Eagles as one point favorites.  The move is no doubt related to the inability of the Eagle Offence to score a touchdown in the preseason.  Some coaches try and win big in the preseason hoping it seeds a mindset for the season.  Chuck Knoll believed this.  Eagles coach Andy Reid does not.  An Eagles preseason is about evaluating players without giving other teams film to craft a game plan.  Kevin Kolb’s 2 consecutive 300 yard starts last season is a better indicator than the preseason.  The difference in this game is the Eagle Defense.  The Eagles are 9-2-1 ATS at home over their last 12, and 7-2 ATS against Green bay over their last nine meetings.   Sing it with me: “Fly eagles fly…”

COWBOYS  (-3.5) over Redskins.   I truly believe Donovan McNabb will make the Redskins a better team, even a dark horse for a wild card spot.  I truly believe Tony Romo will be playing in another city by 2013 without ever reaching the lofty expectations of the Cowboy fan base.  Romo however plays very well in September, and the Redskins offensive line doesn’t yet have the athletes needed for Mike Shannahan’s running scheme.  The Cowboys are 9-4-1 ATS in September while the Redskins are 3-11 ATS over their last 14 at home.  Assuming the Pokes don’t mail it in at Fed Ex field they’ll be partying in Dallas Sunday night.  Take the Cowboys.

49ERS (-3) over Seahawks.  It’s becoming obvious that the 49ers are getting it together while the Seahawks are not.  The 49ers may make the playoffs because they’re in the weakest division.  That “one eyed man in the land of the blind” thing.  Cutting TJ Houshmandzadeh (yes, I googled that) says to me one big money player to this team does not a difference make.  Don’t be surprised if the fans in the “twelfth player” section are wearing bags in their heads by mid October.  The 49ers are 12-5-4 ATS over their last 21, while the Seahawks are 3-8 ATS their last 11 against the NFC.  There’s no reason to expect the Seahawks to do anything but lay an egg here, so lay the three points.  I like the 49ers.

Cardinals (-4) over the Rams.  Sam Bradford my eventually be the answer in St. Louis.  But not this week.  The Rams have more problems than any one player can fix, especially a rookie quarterback.  Over the past 10 years the Rams are 1-8-1 ATS on opening day, and 7-21 ATS against the NFC.  This is not “the greatest show on turf.”   Cardinals in this one. 

That’s how I see it.  Enjoy the weekend!